Predicting the future is a spectrum of things without, and forecast the change of the bubble is more than by the spectrum. However, the latest interdisciplinary research on the asset bubble prediction possible. By the end of the year, I believe that all the people in the world can see two major asset bubble of see top: gold and China's housing prices. As for how to from the top down, you will not be able to predict. What is the asset bubble accurate definition? Interdisciplinary research found that only "super exponential growth" to attract the reason and unreason people involved in forming asset bubble. In the famous fable story, a minister request the king of Persia international chess board in the 64 grid put 1, 2, 4, 8... Grain of rice as a reward.NHL Jerseys This seemingly small request, but in fact, the entire kingdom of the meters are not enough. This is Y = 2 ^ X (X = 0,1,2,3...)The exponential growth. And "super index growth" grow faster than this. No matter in nature or the financial sector, "the exponential growth" not for long. But, only such rapid growth, to attract more and more people involved. Asset bubble is attractive, it is for the "super exponential growth" feature. Because foam once formed, it will last for a long time, and finally may also slow dissipates, so involved in foam is rational behavior, because it may be possible to lock out income. But, countless individual rational behavior, might eventually become popular collective crazy. Bubble have their own rules. Foam once formed, due to the positive feedback effect, will be self-reinforcing, unless there is a powerful forces, general will have been up to can't sustain, and it is difficult to immediately burst. This positive feedback is also the soros says "reverse" theory. This is also why he ready to join bubble is one of the reasons for the gains. For a long time, people think it is difficult to identify asset bubble, let alone predict bust. But, one earth physicists discovery changed people's understanding. Professor DidierSornette engaged in earth's physical research. But he found that financial market bubbles formation and rupture and earthquakes are very much similar, are complex system since the organizational behavior. Professor then puts forward Sornette with geophysical and critical phenomena of the commonly used LPPL (Log-PeriodicPower Law) model (logarithm periodic power Law model) to study the bubble of the financial sector. In the 2003 paper "Antibubble andPrediction of China 's stock market and Real-Estate", ZhouHuiXing professors and Sornette professor observed in China of the price of the house "super exponential growth" bubble characteristics. At that time they according to by 2003 data predicts that China's house prices will rise to 2008 years, after the bubble burst. At the time of the data quantity cases to see prices foam, and predict China house prices could rise five years, have can say is a miracle. Far-sighted as Mr. Xie realize that the Chinese have long of the real estate bubble, but he didn't expect the house prices and the rise in a later. He to the house bubble burst forecast and not realize in the short term. If we use the history of the real estate bubble as an example, the use of LPPL models predict, will get what conclusion? From The American house prices The data? S& P/Case-Shiller Home PriceIndices (Composite-10) analysis can see, at a time when the us house prices are markedly "super index growth". And with LPPL model in August 2004 can predict the future of the peak in May 2006. And the actual data is April 2006 American house prices peaked. Now, a lot of people keen to buy gold. But, no matter from fundamentals or mathematical analysis, gold prices are already obvious bubble. From the fundamentals look, gold does not generate cash flow, prices can only through the currency devaluation and the household higher prices to buy to achieve. And LPPL model is found that at present the price of gold growth has is obvious "super index growth". Through the LPPL (Log-PeriodicPowerLaw) analysis of the model can forecast: gold prices have either in September 5 became more and more top, either in October 4, or so peaked. Worth explanation is, this model does not predict the specific prices peaked, and can only see the top forecast roughly time. Because the time point peaked belongs to mathematics "singularity", can't predict numerical size. And, this model can forecast foam die of specific ways. Bubble might like a balloon slowly discouraged, but also may collapse quickly. At present people care about most I'm afraid or Chinese real estate bubble. Through the Shanghai index zhong monthly data analysis, we can see that house prices in Shanghai from 2002 to and is a notable foam, show clear of "super index growth". Foam could be broken before the end of the year. And office building is not show obvious index of "super exponential growth" bubble. Unfortunately,soccer jerseys the Shanghai index zhong monthly data has stopped announced. But the data enough to predict future vertex. These projections were considered the system of their own evolution, no, it is impossible to predict the significant hit to the outside world. But, it is expected that the world's most controversial, the most influential two bubble: the price of gold and China real estate, have been close to maturity.

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