A group of wise traders but the market consisting of a long not children, every time I hear someone calling "Wolf, will be frightened to tremble. Last week the Chinese market has been rife that higher interest rates to traders and media went about fishing for information, the stock and bond markets there are falling, bureau of statistics in August ahead of the announcement date economic data, many officials speech all let that very realistic interest rates. We shall be investigated for raising interest rates to cool down the reasons why you will find, support the cause of the interest rates behind or cliche high inflation and the so-called "supportive". China's inflation it is true that uplifting, but China's monetary policy is the point quantitative control, not price type.New Era Hats The current is still in the year 7.5 trillion yuan in accordance with the new credit the plan implementation, tightening credit limit is not the signs, and the banker asked coupon survey results indicate that more bankers think monetary policy in the appropriate level (seasonal adjustment results), did not appear like the earlier rounds of growing inflation that the right proportion of appear falling fast, this indicates the credit limit not appear further tightened, and, loan demand boom index dropped in the second quarter, this indicates further tightening of credit lines in reducing the necessity. Even if the credit limit are not tightening, so the direction of monetary policy in further tightening yao, may also raise interest rates? Some people will say that raise interest rates can control inflation expectations, and is not substantial tightening. So more convenient than raising interest rates, side effects is smaller between the market to improve the interest rate level, and improve the one-year benchmark interest rates of ticket issued, it can also to the market and the public a signal, and past before in interest rates, and often is first appear the signal. But last week in the open market central bank also put 71 billion fund, and no show tightening policy orientation of the funds. Besides, the credit limit control cause of small and medium-sized enterprises financing difficulties, and the big enterprise translated the yield on the financing is still low, the AA level during the middle note issuance interest rates only 4% or so, far below the same limit benchmark lending rate, therefore, even if the central bank to further tightening monetary policy, then the reasonable policy choice, should also is to improve the interbank market interest rate level, rather than raise interest rates. And others say, add deposit interest rates do not add loan interest, can achieve curb inflation and did not increase the burden of enterprise financial multiple effect. Indeed, no matter what method to calculate, the current Chinese are already in a "negative real interest rates" range, but, solve the "negative real interest rates" problems need to raise interest rates at least three times, and when we see China's economy is already slowing down, will slow down now, the United States began a new round of economic stimulus plan, come on stage further tightening policy is need great courage. In 2004 China has fallen in the CPI, have interest rates once, it is to raise interest rates in the United States after cycle, China follow policy, with the current environment is completely different. Therefore, raised interest rates several times to solve the "negative real interest rates" possibility is not big. In fact, if tightening interbank market liquidity, improve market yields between Banks, can improve the bank financing products and money market funds of the benefits, so as to achieve stable deposit, the role of inflation. The author not that China does not exist inflation problems, from the cash flow (M0) of all of the M2 scale, Chinese residents of cash held proportion has reached history a quite high level (eliminate the long term trend, using periodic item measure), this reflects the rising inflation expectations residents. But, the enterprise current deposit account for the proportion of the M2 is continue break since June, fixed asset investment growth is still in the slow, influence Chinese economic fluctuation is the main factor "investment" and "currency", its growth rate is declining, it shows that inflation should be in the short-term volatility tend to go down in two quarters, the long-term trend rise with inflation is not contradictory, and monetary policy aimed at short-term volatility in response, therefore, the possibility of further monetary policy tightening small. We see the government the regulation of food price focused on the supply side, the futures market capital research also shows that the government would be limited to the improvement of the financial needs of the food, because the income in China did not appear significantly accelerated, actual spending growth are ebbing, the actual demand for consumer goods will not rapid growth,sunglasses shop if food financial needs of the oppressed, short supply problems were solved, CPI will obey investments and currency fluctuation cycle. According to the past the central bank's control mode, in the CPI innovation high time, the central bank will generally improve yields central ticket, tightening the inter-bank market liquidity to raise money market rates, in this one before policies, improve the benchmark interest rate is extremely unlikely. Market don't in the spread of rumors the ambush, this rumor isn't the first time.

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